honours in philosophy, and a B.Litt in English literature at the University of Melbourne. The largest proportion of the population lives in Warringah. Former state Independent MP for Manly, Dr Peter Macdonald, contested Manly in 2001, but only ate into the Labor and minor party vote, though his campaign was disrupted by the heightened emphasis on immigration and security after the Tampa incident and the September 11 terrorist attacks.Comparison between an anti-Abbott campaign and the contest in the Victorian seat of Indi in 2013 are not relevant. One senior figure said the campaign was merely "limping along", predicting Mr Abbott would win but suffer a bigger swing against him than the rest of New South Wales. (Map). If so, the body language by both persons should be interesting!

— Further helping his cause, I’d imagine that all other parties except for the CDP to preference him over Abbott. Election 2016: Infighting, retirement speculation hits Tony Abbott's campaign for Warringah. Key challenges for the re-elected Coalition government: our experts respond. A4 map of the electoral division of Warringah (2016) [PDF 7.3MB] Detailed map of the electoral division of Warringah (2016) [PDF 15.2MB] Download NSW GIS data (2016) Name derivation: Named after the area in which it is located. The seat was first won by Granville Ryrie in 1922. @Queensland Observer There is a level of truth in Tom’s argument though, older people so tend to favour the Libs and Nats, as well in an electorate like Warringah, Abbott would be pulling upwards of 70% of the senior’s vote. Even had he not used his casting vote against himself, there was NO way he was going to carry on! What looks like the completed recount gives a final result of Lib 62.5 vs Green 37.5 here. Abbott will hold easily although it’s quite probable that the Greens could beat Labor into second. The other thing about NXT is that it’s the candidate most likely (of the 4 with a chance of coming 2nd) to have voters who aren’t putting Abbott last.

Mad Tony shouldn’t have any trouble being returned, but I get the sense that his continuing presence in parliament can only be bad for PM Turnbull. Details of the contest for Senate seats in each state and territory. That resignation, brought on by Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton creating a leadership challenge that would eventually fall to Scott Morrison, had created bitter acrimony in Liberal ranks. The problem she will have is that the Northern Beaches has one of the highest concentrations of 55+ citizens in NSW and they won’t have a clue who Mathison is, let alone actually vote for them. Read more: Warringah was first contested at the 1922 election and has always been a safe conservative seat. Assessment Warringah is a safe Liberal seat. Click to enlarge. Abbott went on to serve as a minister for the entirety of the Howard government from 1996 to 2007, becoming a senior member of Cabinet in the last two terms of the government. It includes Middle Head and the Mosman Council area, North Head and the Manly Council area, plus parts of Warringah and North Sydney Councils. Labor and Greens won’t be taking votes off the Liberals here and are largely irrelevant. Manchester, Manchester, Is it a crime to be poor? Spender was succeeded in 1951 by Francis Bland, who held the seat for ten years with massive majorities, polling over 70% on two occasions and being elected unopposed on a third. Abbott is a conservative warrior. First, Indi is a rural electorate with a strong local media where knowledge of the candidates is much higher than in an urban seat like Warringah. They spat the dummy when Greens didn’t reciprocate but as far as I’m aware they haven’t changed anything. Parkhill was defeated at the 1937 election by conservative independent Percy Spender, who won the seat in a close race on preferences after falling 15% behind on primary votes. That election also saw Warringah become a notional marginal seat in a "traditional" two-party contest against Labor for the first time; Abbott would have held the seat on 52.1 percent against Labor, down from 61 percent in 2016. Map of Warringah’s 2013 and 2016 boundaries. Spender went on to join the UAP shortly after his victory. Macdonald had a reasonable chance of creating an upset, and reduced Abbott's margin substantially, but his attempt to harness local issues was swamped by the higher prominence of foreign affairs in the aftermath of the Tampa incident and September 11 terrorist attacks. Abbott was expected to be a stalking horse for Joe Hockey, stating he would pull out of the contest if the proposed deal on the government's CPRS legislation was abandoned. Warringah's indigenous name means 'sign of rain', 'across the waves' and 'sea'. Watch this space, who knows what will happen. Tony Abbott, former prime minster, Howard-era minister, pugilist and would-be priest, had lost this Liberal heartland seat to barrister and former Olympic skier Zali Steggall. To make a comment or suggest a change to the Election Guide, please contact us. No idea where it will end up but it will be interesting to see how all the challengers do and whether it’s enough to dislodge Abbott or at least make his seat “marginal”. Spender served in the wartime governments of Robert Menzies and Arthur Fadden and served as Minister for External Affairs until 1951, when he retired at the election before being appointed Ambassador to the United States. Woodward states that he played a key role in Sydney's successful bid and the staging of the 2000 Olympic and Paralympic Games, and he has held roles with the Australian Tourist Commission and Visa Inc, having lived in San Francisco for three years where he was Visa's global head of brand and sponsorship communications. He was appointed to the ministry following the 1998 election as Minister for Employment Services with responsibility for 'work for the dole' and making the privatisation of employment services work. "No one expects Tony to hang around for long," said one. On election night 2019, as Australia voted to return the Liberal-National Party government of Scott Morrison, one seat defied the trend – Warringah. By 21 she had her own shopfront which she successfully ran for 6 years in the iconic fashion precinct of Richmond, Victoria. Macdonald polled 27% of the primary vote and came within 6% of defeating Abbott. The Labor government lost its majority, but managed to piece together a majority with the support of crossbench MPs. This sense of being out of touch, perhaps most strongly exhibited by Abbott’s continued insistence that he would come back to lead the Liberal Party if he was asked to, even when Liberal voters were strongly opposed to this , propelled Steggall’s attempt to wrest the seat from Abbott. Always good to see something to make otherwise boring safe seats interesting anyway. Found myself at Bridgepoint in Mosman recently. History

Which states will be critical to the outcome of the 2016 federal election? Hillary Clinton Donald Trump After 50 of 50 states. Coalition wins election but Abbott loses Warringah, plus how the polls got it so wrong. In the end, he received just nine votes against the 39 cast for Bronwyn Bishop and 40 for the eventual winner, Jason Falinski. A4 map of the electoral division of Warringah (2016) [PDF 7.3MB] Detailed map of the electoral division of Warringah (2016) [PDF 15.2MB] Download NSW GIS data (2016) Name derivation: Named after the area in which it is located. Festival of Social Science 2020 Map of Warringah’s 2013 and 2016 boundaries. @Winediamond well we are the experts at it. itself was accused of using Steggall as a front for its activities. It’s actually quite uncommon these days for defeated leaders to hang around (unless they want to cause trouble). Rowland was born in the UK of Sri Lankan/English heritage and lived in New Zealand before settling in Australia. Bland was succeeded in 1961 by John Cockle, who held the seat until his death shortly before the 1966 election. I’d expect this to be less “safe” after this election, due to a confluence of a few factors… but I’d imagine Abbott will still win (hard to imagine a swing larger than 15%). Even if he can’t be PM again, I’d expect him to stick around for a long time, happy to wield whatever level of influence he can. From my understanding, John Howard was a far shrewder politician than Abbott. W of S Yes when labor do political execution, there are buckets of blood !!! Former members including Sir Percy Spender (1937-51), Edward St John (1966-69) and Michael Mackellar (1969-94).

Tony Abbott at the launch of his ninth campaign for the seat of Warringah. We got rid of Hughes in 1922, Menzies in 1941, Gorton in 1971 and now Abbott in 2015. Second, Independent Cathy McGowan had been campaigning for months, was a very well known local, and tapped into strong networks of community groups, where there has been no long term campaign in Warringah. Would he be able to tap into youth disengagement with politics?The graph below shows how difficult the task is for anyone else other than an official Liberal candidate to win Warringah. But having secured some 50,000 votes to the Labor candidate's 17,000 in 2013, there appears no danger of Mr Abbott being turfed. The key issues for Steggall, climate change and refugees, were both issues that had agitated the electors of Wentworth seven months earlier, when independent Kerryn Phelps won the seat of former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull at the byelection caused by his resignation from parliament.

Mon, 25 Jul 2016 11:43:45 AM AEST: Sydney WARRINGAH PPVC: Sydney Town … He is a former National Convenor of the Australian Greens, between 2003-2005. Warringah is essentially a seat of two differing electorates. It was the Mosman based western segment of the electorate that is the immovable conservative bedrock that saved Antoine in 2001 and will ensure this seat remains in conservative hands for as long as this seat crosses the Spit. Add articles to your saved list and come back to them any time. "It reflects the way Tony deals with people: you're either with him or against him.". This has included defacing of posters, personal abuse at both candidates, opposing campaigners dogging other candidates as they meet and greet, and particularly of the Abbott campaign, the use of media surrogates to promote an anti-Steggall message. In spite of all this however, we shall see what develops in the coming weeks. Redistribution Warringah lost Cremorne to North Sydney, which cut the Liberal margin from 15.5% to 15.3%. Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group). Giordano has ten years experience in retail business management in Australia and overseas. The Greens candidate is impressive, will get the younger vote (nor Mathison as the media likes to assume), took 2nd against Baird and has managed to get plenty of media. University of Sydney provides funding as a member of The Conversation AU. Completely agree with MM and GG, I honestly can’t see why Abbott is still there. Abbott had always held Warringah by large margins over the ALP, and the only serious threat to his hold on the seat came in 2001, when Peter Macdonald, former independent member for the state seat of Manly, challenged Abbott.


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